Simulating an ageing population : a microsimulation approach applied to Sweden /

Simulating an ageing population : a microsimulation approach applied to Sweden /

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Many Western countries now experience population ageing when the large post World War II birth cohorts retire and age. The future consequences of ageing are an issue of research that might have far-reaching policy implications. Although the Swedish dependency ratios will not increase as much as in s...

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Bibliographic Details
Other Authors: Klevmarken, Anders, 1941-, Lindgren, Björn, 1942-, Lindgren, Björn, 1942-
Format: Book
Language:English
Published: Bingley : Emerald, 2008
Bingley : 2008
Series:Contributions to economic analysis ; 285
Contributions to economic analysis ; 285
Contributions to economic analysis 285
Contributions to economic analysis; 285
Subjects:
Older people > Health and hygiene > Economic aspects > Sweden > Forecasting
Population aging > Economic aspects > Sweden > Forecasting
Social prediction > Mathematical models
Forecasting
Older people > Health and hygiene
Population aging
Social prediction
Sweden
Table of Contents:
  • Ch. 1 An Ageing Economy in an International Perspective / Anders Klevmarken and Bjorn Lindgren
  • Ch. 2. Dynamic Microsimulation for Policy Analysis: Problems and Solutions / Anders Klevmarken
  • Ch. 3. SESIM: A Swedish Micro-Simulation Model / Lennart Flood
  • Ch. 4. Changes in the Health Status of the Population / Kristian Bolin, Matias Eklof, Soren Hojgard and Bjorn Lindgren
  • Ch. 5. Sickness Absence from Work / Kristian Bolin, Soren Hojgard and Bjorn Lindgren
  • Ch. 6. Early Retirement / Kristian Bolin, Matias Eklof, Daniel Hallberg, Soren Hojgard and Bjorn Lindgren
  • Ch. 7. Geographical Mobility and Tenure Choice / Urban Fransson and Matias Eklof
  • Ch. 8. The Income of the Baby Boomers / Lennart Flood, Anders Klevmarken and Andreea Mitrut
  • Ch. 9. The Distribution of Wealth / Lennart Flood and Anders Klevmarken
  • Ch. 10. Utilization of Inpatient Care / Kristian Bolin, Soren Hojgard and Bjorn Lindgren
  • Ch. 11. The Demand for Old Age Care / Urban Fransson, Daniel Hallberg and Marten Lagergren
  • Ch. 12. Simulating the Future of the Elderly / Anders Klevmarken
  • Ch. 13. Evaluation and Conclusions / Anders Klevmarken.
  • Introduction to the Series xiii
  • Chapter 1 An Ageing Economy in an International Perspective / Anders Klevmarken, Bjorn Lindgren 1
  • 2 The project "old baby-boomers" 12
  • 3 Theory and previous empirical results 15
  • 3.1 Health 15
  • 3.2 Sickness absence 16
  • 3.3 Withdrawal from the labor market 17
  • 3.4 Geographical mobility and tenure choice 20
  • 3.5 Incomes and wealth of the elderly 22
  • 3.6 Utilization of health- and social care 23
  • 4 A dynamic micro-simulation model 24
  • Chapter 2 Dynamic Microsimulation for Policy Analysis: Problems and Solutions / Anders Klevmarken 31
  • 1 What is microsimulation? 31
  • 2 Modeling for microsimulation 34
  • 3 Data problems 37
  • 4 Macro chocks, feedback, and markets in microsimulation models 39
  • 5 Estimation 41
  • 6 Model validation 47
  • 7 End remark 49
  • Chapter 3 Sesim: A Swedish Micro-Simulation Model / Lennart Flood 55
  • 2 The structure of SESIM 55
  • 3 Data sources 60
  • 3.1 LINDA: a panel database 60
  • 3.2 Other data sources 61
  • 4 Initial adjustments 61
  • 4.1 Adjustments to a meaningful household definition 61
  • 4.2 Adding emigrants with pension rights 63
  • 5 SESIM: a stochastic simulation model 64
  • 6 Assumptions about exogenous variables 67
  • Chapter 4 Changes in the Health Status of the Population / Kristian Bolin, Matias Eklof, Soren Hojgard, Bjorn Lindgren 85
  • 1 Health trends in Sweden 86
  • 2 Theoretical framework and our choice of explanatory variables 90
  • 3 Modeling the evolution of health 92
  • 4 Our health measure 92
  • 4.1 Options 92
  • 4.2 Our measure of health 93
  • 5 Data 95
  • 5.1 Dependent variables 96
  • 5.2 Explanatory variables 96
  • 6 Estimation strategy 97
  • 7 Results 99
  • 8 Simulations 102
  • 8.1 Cross-sectional age-health profiles 103
  • 8.2 Cohort age-health profiles 103
  • 8.3 Population-shares time series 105
  • Appendix A Illustration of the construction of the health index suggested by Statistics Sweden 110
  • Appendix B The estimator 111
  • Chapter 5 Sickness Absence from Work / Kristian Bolin, Soren Hojgard, Bjorn Lindgren 115
  • 2 Previous empirical research 116
  • 3 The Swedish sickness-benefits system 122
  • 4 Data 128
  • 4.1 Dependent variable 129
  • 4.2 Explanatory variables 129
  • 5 Empirical model 130
  • 5.1 Econometric specification 130
  • 6 Results 130
  • 7 Simulations 132
  • 7.1 Cross-sectional age profiles of average number of days of sick-leave 132
  • 7.2 Cohort age-health profiles 133
  • 7.3 Simulated development of the average number of days of sickness absence for the 50-64 population 133
  • 7.4 Simulated development of the total number of days of sickness absence for the 20-64 population 135
  • Appendix A An algorithm for bootstrap calculation of marginal effects and p-values in a negative binomial model with over dispersion, heterogeneity, and sample selection 138
  • Chapter 6 Early Retirement / Kristian Bolin, Matias Eklof, Daniel Hallberg, Soren Hojgard, Bjorn Lindgren 143
  • 1 Disability insurance in Sweden 145
  • 2 Old age pension in Sweden 147
  • 2.1 Public old age pension 147
  • 2.2 Collectively agreed occupational pension 148
  • 2.3 Early-retirement pension offers 151
  • 3 Stylized facts 152
  • 4 Models of early retirement 157
  • 4.1 Early retirement via disability insurance 159
  • 4.2 Early retirement via old age pension 160
  • 5 Data 162
  • 5.1 Data for early retirement via disability insurance 162
  • 5.2 Data for early retirement via old age pension 164
  • 6 Empirical specifications 169
  • 7 Results 171
  • 8 Simulations 173
  • 8.1 Basic scenario 176
  • 8.2 Alternative scenario 1: no early-retirement offers 182
  • 8.3 Alternative scenario 2: delayed retirement 184
  • Chapter 7 Geographical Mobility and Tenure Choice / Urban Fransson, Matias Eklof 201
  • 1 Urbanization and migration 201
  • 1.1 Regional redistribution of the population 202
  • 1.2 Urban concentration 203
  • 2 Housing 205
  • 2.1 The housing market in Sweden 205
  • 3 The Swedish housing policy 209
  • 3.1 Subsidies and allowances 209
  • 3.2 Housing policy in the 1990s 209
  • 3.3 Current rent regulation 211
  • 4 Housing and mobility of the elderly 211
  • 4.2 Elderly housing and tenure 212
  • 5 Modeling migration and tenure choice 215
  • 5.1 Model overview 215
  • 5.2 Data 217
  • 5.3 Analyzing migration behavior 219
  • 6 Result from the simulations 236
  • Chapter 8 The Income of the Baby Boomers / Lennart Flood, Anders Klevmarken, Andreea Mitrut 249
  • 2 Sweden in an international comparison 250
  • 3 The Swedish experience 254
  • 3.1 Changes in income 1975-2003 254
  • 4 Income generation in SESIM 261
  • 4.1 Income from earnings 261
  • 4.2 Pension income and other benefits 262
  • 4.3 Income from capital 264
  • 5 Retirement income of the baby boomers 275
  • 5.1 Concepts and measures 275
  • 5.2 Replacement rates for the baby boomers 276
  • 5.3 Relative income of the baby boomers 281
  • 5.4 Income distribution and poverty 284
  • Appendix A Comparing different measures of replacement rates 288
  • Chapter 9 The Distribution of Wealth / Lennart Flood, Anders Klevmarken 293
  • 1 The Swedish distribution of wealth in an international comparison 294
  • 2 The structure of the wealth module in SESIM 298
  • 3 Modeling financial wealth 300
  • 3.1 Tax-deferred pension savings 303
  • 4 Household real wealth 307
  • 5 Models of debts 310
  • 6 Simulating the future of the distribution of wealth 315
  • Chapter 10 Utilization of Inpatient Care / Kristian Bolin, Soren Hojgard, Bjorn Lindgren 325
  • 1 The Swedish health care system 325
  • 1.1 General characteristics 325
  • 1.2 Inpatient care 328
  • 2 Theoretical framework, previous empirical studies, and our choice of explanatory variables 330
  • 3 Data 331
  • 3.1 Dependent variables 333
  • 3.2 Explanatory variables 333
  • 4 Models 334
  • 5 Results 334
  • 6 Simulations 336
  • 6.1 Cross-sectional age profiles of average number of days of inpatient care 336
  • 6.2 Cohort age profiles of average number of days of inpatient care 336
  • 6.3 Simulated development of average number of days of inpatient care for the population 338
  • 6.4 Simulated development of total number of days of inpatient care for the population 338
  • Chapter 11 The Demand for Old Age Care / Urban Fransson, Daniel Hallberg, Marten Lagergren 343
  • 1 Care for elderly persons in Sweden 343
  • 1.1 The Swedish system of public elderly care 343
  • 1.2 Range of services for elderly persons 344
  • 1.3 Total expenditure and funding 345
  • 1.4 Non-public and informal care of the elderly 346
  • 2 Closeness to kin 347
  • 2.1 Relocation among children and parents, and the proximity of parents to adult children 348
  • 2.2 Methods, data, and variables 350
  • 2.3 Results of regression analysis 353
  • 2.4 Simulation results 356
  • 3 A model of the demand for old age care and mortality: specification, estimation, interpretation, and simulations 359
  • 3.2 Data 361
  • 3.3 Methodology 365
  • 3.4 Multinomial OAC choice analysis 365
  • 3.5 Mortality analysis 369
  • 3.6 Simulation 373
  • Chapter 12 Simulating the Future of the Elderly / Anders Klevmarken 389
  • 1 Improved health progression with and without decreased death risks 390
  • 2 Increased immigration 396
  • 3 Delayed retirement 399
  • 4 Changes in growth assumptions and in unemployment 401
  • 5 The incomes and wealth of people in old-age care 403
  • Chapter 13 Evaluation and Conclusions / Anders Klevmarken 409
  • 1 Summary of findings 409
  • 2 Methodology issues 415

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